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A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and caused chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.

That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.

Absence of Serious Debate

Partisan language for and against unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in academia but hardly any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, neither author supports unity or the status quo. Both writes two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.

Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.

Likelihood of Public Vote

McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."

Request for Broader Debate

Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."